Saturday’s trip to Cardiff will not only allow Irish fans to carry out some vital scouting of the city’s best tourist spots, but will also give the Irish players a chance to get reacquainted with what will become their home away from home if everything goes according to plan in the group stages.
Schmidt’s admission that he will trim the squad to 38 or 39 players next week means that this weekend is effectively the last-chance saloon for some of the players that will be on-show in Cardiff. The back-three of Felix Jones, Andrew Trimble and Fergus McFadden will all feel as though they have something to prove while Darren Cave needs to grab this opportunity with both hands.
The return of Donnacha Ryan has already been highlighted and there are few players who are more deserving of a chance to play their way into contention. At first glance, the inclusion of Tommy O’Donnell and Jordi Murphy would suggest that they’re involved in a head-to-head battle for the one back-row spot that’s still up for grabs so both players won’t lack for motivation.
One other point about the Ireland team selection is the absence of new caps. It makes you wonder what exactly was said in the phone call between Joe and Warren last week. Would Gatty really have picked such a weakened team for a sold-out Millennium Stadium if he knew that the Irish side would be so strong? Realistically, it means next week’s match against Scotland will see caps and starts for Nathan White/Tadhg Furlong, Jack Conan and Noel Reid.
Ireland XV to play Wales:
15. Felix Jones; 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Keith Earls, 12. Darren Cave, 11. Fergus McFadden; 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Eoin Reddan; 1. Jack McGrath, 2. Richardt Strauss, 3. Mike Ross; 4. Iain Henderson, 5. Donnacha Ryan; 6. Jordi Murphy, 7. Tommy O'Donnell, 8. Jamie Heaslip (capt).
Subs: 16. Rory Best, 17. Dave Kilcoyne, 18. Michael Bent, 19. Dan Tuohy, 20. Chris Henry, 21. Kieran Marmion, 22. Ian Madigan, 23. Simon Zebo.
45 into 31 won’t go
And then there’s the squad.
Warren Gatland has already spoken about agonising over whether he will go for a 17-14 split between forwards and backs or if he’ll opt for a 16-15 split instead. Schmidt will be asking himself the very same question over the next three weeks ahead of the August 31st deadline to hand-in his list of 31.
All coaches will be seeking to use versatile players to fill the gaps that will inevitably be left in their tournament squads. Gatland’s gameplan revolves around powerful strike runners among both forwards and backs, which means that he may need more options behind the scrum. However, Schmidt’s Ireland tend to use their maul and set-piece to suck-in defences before kicking into targeted areas and pressurising the opposition. That will lead to a greater need for forwards and a probably 17-14 split.
Forwards: the Healy conundrum
Lets start with the front-row and Cian Healy. This week’s admission by Schmidt that the prop could go to the World Cup without playing in the warm-up matches has effectively ruled-out the possibility of bringing just two loosehead props and that’s got a big impact on squad permutations. On the basis that Healy and Jack McGrath are both capable of playing for a full 80 minutes, it would have been interesting if Schmidt had opted to bring just five props to cover both sides of the scrum. However, it now looks as though Dave Kilcoyne will also travel at the expense of an extra back-rower.
Rory Best, Sean Cronin and Richardt Strauss are the hookers, while Mike Ross and (a hopefully fit) Marty Moore are the obvious tight-head choices. The final front-row berth will go to Michael Bent ahead of Tadhg Furlong. Bent was an unfair target for abuse when he first arrived in Ireland (not least because of the picture below), but the Kiwi has quietly gone about his business with Leinster and his ability to cover both sides of the scrum will be invaluable during the pool stages - expect him to have a lot of minutes against Canada and Romania.
Mandatory Credit ©INPHO/Dan Sheridan
We’re taking four second-rows to RWC2015. Paulie, Devin and Iain Henderson are locked-in (and Henderson’s ability to play in the back-row is a huge bonus) while a fully fit Donnacha Ryan, who can also play blindside flanker at a pinch, will edge-out Dan Tuohy and Mike McCarthy.
That leaves four back-row places to fill, although it’s worth repeating that Henderson is likely to see game time at no.6 as well. Jamie Heaslip, Sean O’Brien and Peter O’Mahony are certainties, which leaves just one spot available for either Chris Henry, Tommy O’Donnell, Jordi Murphy, Jack Conan or Robbie Diack. Good luck trying to make that pick! Of that group, Murphy has got the ability to cover all three spots in the back-row, but Henry is a real Schmidt prototype. Either player could make the squad, but we think that Murphy will get the golden ticket.
Half-backs: Madigan’s versatility key
The half-back positions are so specialised that the Irish management will want to bring three players for each spot. Conor Murray and Eoin Reddan will be the match-day 9’s for the big games, while Isaac Boss looks likely to win the nod over Kieran Marmion. It would have been nice to see Paul Marshall get a look-in (playing back-up to Ruan Pienaar doesn’t mean you’re a bad player) while Luke McGrath could have been a really exciting prospect if the World Cup was next year. As things stand, Boss and Marmion are pretty similar players, but Boss has greater experience and Marmion was struggling for form at the tail end of last season, when he lost his place in the Connacht side to John Cooney.
We suspect that Paddy Jackson will be deputy for Jonathan Sexton (although, whether or not he’s in match-day squads is a much closer call) and this weekend’s selection appears to confirm that. We’re backing Ian Madigan to also be part of the squad, but almost more as a centre than a no.10, which is a point we’ll get to later. Jackson’s form for Ulster before the end of last season was outstanding and his ability to put runners into space with smart, accurate passes will create gaps for the likes of Henshaw, Payne and O’Brien to exploit.
Backline: Specialist wingers
As mentioned, Madigan’s ability to play at inside centre has a ripple effect throughout the rest of the backline options. It’s not hard to imagine Madigan starting at no.12 against Romania or Italy where he could help to take some of the heat off Sexton. Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne can both operate across the centre and also provide cover at full-back, which is likely to be bad news for Felix Jones (who has been consistently selected by Schmidt). With Payne and Henshaw as the preferred midfield partnership and Madigan providing some cover, the other specialised centre position will be between Gordon D’Arcy, Darren Cave and Noel Reid. We like Reid, who has a good kicking game to add to his speed and excellent passing ability, while Cave’s selection at no.12 for Cardiff is a huge opportunity for him to jump to the top of the queue. But there’s a nagging suspicion that D’Arcy must know something to have put his 35-year-old body through yet another pre-season - and that he’s not doing it for the delights of Edinburgh on September 4th.
With Payne and Henshaw (as well as Tommy Bowe) able to offer injury cover for Rob Kearney, Schmidt will be tempted not to include another specialist full-back and instead focus on bringing a good stock of wingers with him to the UK. The wing has become something of a specialist position during Schmidt’s time in charge of Ireland, with Andrew Trimble, Dave Kearney and Simon Zebo all developing significantly under his coaching. In a position that Ireland seem to have an embarrassment of riches, Tommy Bowe is the only real certainty for inclusion. Trimble and Luke Fitzgerald (another option at outside centre) would also appear likely to travel, which leaves Zebo, Kearney, Keith Earls, Craig Gilroy and Fergus McFadden hoping for the last spot on the plane. We suspect that this is the one area that Schmidt could still be undecided on, as all five players offer something different. Earls would be a brave and popular choice given the way that he finished the last season with Munster, but ultimately we’ve opted for Zebo on the basis of his progression under Schmidt and the x-factor that he’ll bring to the Irish backline.
Disagree with us? Of course you do! But ask yourself, what will Joe do?!
Predicted Ireland RWC2015 squad
Forwards (17): Michael Bent, Rory Best, Sean Cronin, Cian Healy, Jamie Heaslip, Iain Henderson, Dave Kilcoyne, Jack McGrath, Marty Moore, Jordi Murphy, Sean O’Brien, Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony, Mike Ross, Donnacha Ryan, Richardt Strauss, Devin Toner.
Backs (14): Isaac Boss, Tommy Bowe, Gordon D’Arcy, Luke Fitzgerald, Robbie Henshaw, Paddy Jackson, Rob Kearney, Ian Madigan, Conor Murray, Jared Payne, Eoin Reddan, Johnny Sexton, Andrew Trimble, Simon Zebo.
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