We're well into the Premier League season and the games are coming thick and fast; Our man Enda Coll has a guide for what to look out for in the games coming up this weekend, and predicts their outcome.
Is there too much football on? It seems almost impossible to keep up with most of the games happening these days; blink, and West Ham are suddenly in the top four. This year's games have been almost impossible to predict, but let's give this a go.
EVERTON VS NEWCASTLE
Everton’s form has finally reverted to where you would normally expect the Toffees to be. In fact, if you factor in the extra games at their disposal, they’re probably still punching a little bit above expectations and into the top four.
Newcastle on the other hand are on a torrid run of form and it doesn’t look to be turning around under Steve Bruce.
While away form for most teams in the league has improved with fans, the same can’t be said about Newcastle; they’ve lost their last five away games in a row.
Across the season, the Toon have only managed an XG of around 0.80 away from home, and have an xG against of around 1.79. Simply put, they don’t score often and concede more than once on average.
This could be another difficult one for Brucey.
Prediction: Everton
CRYSTAL PALACE VS WOLVES
If you said at the start of the season that Crystal Palace and Wolves would have the exact same record as one another at this point, not many would have believed you.
Wolves’ decline this season has been staggering but such is the impact of losing a player with the quality of Raul Jimenez.
The key to beating Crystal Palace is scoring early. Usually you would associate a Roy Hodgson side with being well disciplined in that manner, but this year is different. The Eagles have a high concentration of goals conceded in the first 15 minutes of a game, and they rarely bounce back from them.
This might be a worry for them on a normal day, but with Wolves, they needn’t fret. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have failed to score in the first half in 68% of their games this season.
Prediction: Draw
File photo dated 29-12-2019 of Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola.MANCHESTER CITY VS SHEFFIELD UNITED
It’s not getting easier for Sheffield United, is it? Chris Wilder’s side may have surprised the other side of Manchester this week but their record up until now has been nothing short of atrocious.
If reports are to be believed, Man City’s tailored training regime certainly has them peaking at a good time this season.
A tip of the hat to John Stones, who has been a key part of that and whose form can only be commended.
This is an easy one.
Prediction: Man City
WEST BROM VS FULHAM
Don’t say it, don’t say it, don’t say it. THIS REALLY IS A RELEGATION SIX POINTER. Damn it!
Seriously though, it is. West Brom can leapfrog Fulham if they win, albeit having played two games more than Scott Parker’s men.
While we’re on the top - Scott Parker just seems to have everything Sam Allardyce would envy. Good looks, well dressed, not beaten down by a life of basement beating.. Yet.
The stats are stacked against the home side here. Fulham have only lost one of their last five away games, while West Brom have lost all five of their last home games.
On expected goals, Fulham are averaging at least 1 goal a game away from home, West Brom are averaging only 0.5 goals at home. Defensively they’ve got an expected conceded goals of 2.9.
That being said, Big Sam is unpredictable at times and the importance of the game could weigh into things.
Prediction: Fulham
ARSENAL VS MANCHESTER UNITED
Has this rivalry lost a bit of it’s edge? Remember the tunnel incident? Remember Vieira and Keane kicking lumps into each other in 2004? Ah yes, I’member (South Park reference)
Let’s be frank, this isn’t a rivalry. It hasn’t been a rivalry since 2006. A rivalry is only a rivalry if A) It’s between two teams in the same city, or nearest city. B) They’re competing for the title with each other. Neither of those are true and 2004 was 17 years ago, yes, you’re that old!
In terms of 2021, Manchester United are in the better form, especially away from home. Away from Old Trafford, Solskjaer’s side have scored double what Arsenal have done at home, while conceding not many more.
Will Manchester United be able to bounce back from their loss on Wednesday night? That’s the key thing to factor in here.
Depending how Solskjaer can balance that, a win here would be a massive boost to their title hopes.
Prediction - Draw
SOUTHAMPTON VS ASTON VILLA
Having weathered a tough period with games against Man City, Manchester United and Chelsea, Aston Villa were unlucky against Burnley during the week.
Dean Smith’s side were much better value of the two clarets on the pitch but didn’t make the most of their chances and got punished.
Both of these sides have been punching well above their weight this year while also playing exciting brands of football.
Southampton have struggled for form up front of late - failing to score in four of their last five games; this of course, corresponding with losing Danny Ings to a positive COVID test.
While the Saints have a strong history in this fixture, that matters little going into this match. However, in the last 12 games between these sides, there was an average of 3.67 goals each game.
If we get that - we’ll be happy.
Prediction: Draw
Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel on the touchline during the Premier League match at Stamford Bridge, London. Picture date: Wednesday January 27, 2021.CHELSEA VS BURNLEY
Thomas Tuchel took charge of his first Chelsea game in the scoreless draw against Wolves on Wednesday night.
After their massive win over Liverpool, Burnley will look to take another top six scalp and are in good form going into this game.
To do that, they may try to hit them early and tighten up at the back. In fact, 30% of Burnley’s goals this year have come in the opening 15 minutes of the game; while Chelsea have left it until the final five minutes on 33% of the time.
Home form could swing this in favour of Tuchel though, with the Blues averaging 1.67 points per game at home to 0.9 points for Burnley.
Prediction: Chelsea
LEICESTER VS LEEDS
This could be the game of the weekend. Both sides have been playing some excellent football this season but there are two caveats going into this fixture.
The first is that of Jamie Vardy. The striker is again Leicester’s top scorer with 13 goals this year, but he will miss this game through injury. Vardy, who has been pivotal to the side, underwent surgery on a hernia and isn’t expected to be back for at least another week.
The second is Leeds’ form. Marcelo Bielsa’s side have only won two from their last five games, with those wins coming against basement battlers Newcastle and West Brom.
Both teams to score in this game should happen if form is anything to go by. On paper it’s got a goal fest written all over it. You can blame me when it finishes 0-0.
Prediction: Leicester
WEST HAM VS LIVERPOOL
Well, well, well. David Moyes eh? What a turnaround it has been for the Scot as West Ham fly high in the top six.
A big confidence boost for them would be the performance of Trent Alexander-Arnold in that game, who got a goal and an assist on the night.
Somewhere West Ham can potentially do damage here is in the air. Tomas Soucek is the de-facto Marouane Fellaini for Moyes this year, and could have some fun against the mixed bag back-four of Liverpool.
Prediction: Draw
BRIGHTON VS TOTTENHAM
Initially, going into this game Brighton looked like the perfect team to take a hammering from Tottenham. Graham Potter’s men like to play on the front foot but are rarely clinical in front of goal - leaving them perfect bait for the counter-attack.
Harry Kane’s injury changes the mood of the game slightly. Without the striker, Spurs lack the potency in attack that they’d usually have; which is something Brighton will take confidence from.
This one is finely balanced at the minute - but I think the away side will have enough talent at their disposal to get past the relegation candidates.
Prediction: Tottenham
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