Irish Rugby wasn't in a good place when the season suddenly stopped. Covid-19 came immediately after England had embarrassed Ireland again. A fortunate win against Scotland and a convincing win against Wales couldn't make up for that failure. Andy Farrell had to decide whether to cling to his past stars or begin transitioning to a new fulcrum. That decision is easy now.
Alan Quinlan dismissed the idea of playing rugby without scrums this week. He was speaking to Off The Ball AM on Monday. Quinlan is right. Scrums are an integral part of the sport, even while the delays that come with them have detracted from it as a spectacle. Not only are scrums at the heart of what rugby is, removing them wouldn't have any impact on Covid-19 conditions.
Squashing 16 players into a tight space to drive each other off the ball is the opposite of social distancing. But so is everything else that happens on a rugby field. Taking scrums away but maintaining every other aspect of the sport wouldn't prevent players from getting uncomfortably close to each other. Taking the contact out of professional rugby would mean it wasn't professional rugby anymore. It's just famous people playing tag.
But that's also why it's hard to envision rugby coming back anytime soon.
The Pro 14 has set a target date for the end of August. It would only involve Irish teams playing each other and even then, the target date was more about settling on a static target to work toward rather than an actual expected return date. The English Premiership hopes to return to training in two weeks. It's a hope rather than an expectation. Everyone is in a holding pattern until we move further through the phases of this pandemic.
Covid-19 is a continuing tragedy. By definition, it only brings negatives and there is never a good time for it to hit. Sports are not the priority right now. But within the context of rugby, the enforced break might have come at a good time for the Irish rugby team. It definitely didn't come at a time when it's costing them something to celebrate. While Leinster were on course for an unbeaten season, Andy Farrell's squad repeated that performance in Twickenham to firmly emphasize that it was time to move on from the older guard.
Rory Best and Rob Kearney played their last games for Ireland at the World Cup. Shifting the focus doesn't mean the same has to happen to Johnny Sexton, Peter O'Mahony, Keith Earls, C.J. Stander and Bundee Aki. It does mean they should move into ancillary roles.
Some pillars are already in place.
James Ryan will be the Irish captain soon. Johnny Sexton revealed in April that his captaincy was discussed as being temporary. That makes sense as he would bridge the gap between Rory Best's retirement and Ryan's readiness to lead. Ryan turns 24 in July. Sexton can still start for Ireland after being captain. He doesn't need to retire for Ryan to take over. Ryan is at the forefront of Ireland's future and he's not alone there.
Tadhg Furlong (27), Robbie Henshaw (turns 27 in June), Jordan Larmour (turns 23 in June) and Garry Ringrose (25) have been standout performers for Ireland from recent seasons. Joey Carbery (24) would be in that group, but injuries and Joe Schmidt's commitment to Sexton have restrained him to just 22 caps. Dan Leavy (26) would also be in that group if he hadn't suffered a devastating knee injury last year. Leavy was arguably Ireland's best player before getting hurt.
Neither Carbery nor Leavy would be playing right now if the season was running as normal. Both players may actually benefit from continued rehab and individual training. Carbery needs to prove his durability once next season returns while Leavy needs to prove he can reach the heights of his past again.
Henshaw and Ringrose have competed with Bundee Aki and, to a lesser extent, Chris Farrell. The Leinster duo should be allowed to let their relationship continue to develop as Ireland's starting centre tandem moving forward.
That is Ireland's established foundation of youth. Jack Conan (turns 28 in July), Josh van der Flier (27) and Andrew Conway (29 in July) are a little older but are already established starters at international level. James Lowe (28 in July) and Will Addison (28 in August) are international-calibre options yet to fully establish themselves internationally.
After that group, there is another group of exciting players who have already featured for Andy Farrell.
- Andrew Porter (24) - Ironically, Porter moved from loosehead to tighthead prop so he could get more playing time at Leinster. That landed him behind Tadhg Furlong at provincial and international level. Furlong is the only reason Porter doesn't already have 50 caps for Ireland. It's not unreasonable to think Porter could move back to loosehead so he and Furlong could start together. Dave Kilcoyne and Cian Healy are both in the back-ends of their careers.
- Jacob Stockdale (24) - 12 months ago it would have been insane to think that Jacob Stockdale wasn't a guaranteed starter for Ireland moving forward. He's still extremely young and he still has the potential to be the best winger in the world, but the inconsistencies have been too prevalent lately. He needs to find his consistency and confidence on the wing again. His defensive frailties have made him a liability too many times.
- Caelan Doris (22) - C.J. Stander has had a vice-like grip on Ireland's number eight jersey for a long time. He's played 41 times since 2016 and is 30 years old. His workload was huge in those games as Ireland's primary ball-carrier. Farrell moved Stander to six to accommodate Doris at eight for the first Six Nations game this year. Doris was an Ireland under-20 captain and has a more dynamic skill set than Stander. He has every chance of mirroring the career that Jamie Heaslip had.
- Max Deegan (23) - Deegan is clearly behind Doris in the pecking order for the number eight spot. He's already an international-standard back row who can play at six or seven. Deegan stands to benefit most if Peter O'Mahony moves down the pecking order.
- Ronan Kelleher (22) - Ronan Kelleher was Leinster's breakout star during the early stages of the season. He likely would have started for Ireland if he was healthy leading up to the Six Nations. Rob Herring's time as the placeholding starter should be over once rugby returns. Kelleher offers Ireland dynamism with the ball in open space that Rory Best never had.
Farrell had four development players in training camp before the Six Nations this year.
Will Connors (24) is a true openside flanker who was breaking out into a star for Leinster this season. Robert Baloucoune (turns 23 in August) has developed an all-around game to become a starting winger for Ulster the past two seasons. Harry Byrne (21) went from Leinster's Academy to the fringes of Farrell's Six Nations squad without establishing himself in the Leinster senior squad. Ryan Baird (turns 21 in July) did the same and subsequently became a household name in rugby circles after his hat trick against Glasgow.
Baloucoune and Connors have established young players to take jobs from over the coming years. Byrne will compete with Munster's Ben Healy (turns 21 in June) to eventually push Carbery at out-half. Byrne needs to surpass Ciaran Frawley and his brother Ross Byrne at Leinster first, while Healy still needs to surpass J.J. Hanrahan in the Munster pecking order. Both out halves starred for Ireland under-20's Grand Slam win in 2019.
Baird has a strong chance of starting Ireland's next game. He and James Ryan could be the future of Leinster and Ireland. That's how exciting a prospect he is. He's jumping ahead of Munster's Fineen Wycherly (22) who has already made 39 appearances for Munster.
Ireland have a lot of talented second rows coming through with Munster providing both Gavin Coombes (22) who has already played 14 times for Munster and Thomas Ahern (20) who was starring for the unbeaten Ireland under-20s team this year. Connacht's Ultan Dillane and Ulster's Iain Henderson are both still 28-and-younger too.
Connacht and Ulster also had scrum half Caolin Blade (26) and tighthead prop Tom O'Toole (21) in Farrell's mid-season stock take squad at the end of 2019.
Blade has shown flashes of his potential but he's been inconsistent for Connacht. Both John Cooney and Conor Murray have years left in their Irish careers, so the next scrum-half to take over a starting role internationally is more likely to be Munster's Craig Casey (21). The Ireland under-20's starter from this season is a diminutive figure but outstanding player. He'll evoke Peter Stringer comparisons for as long as he plays because of his intensity and quick delivery from the base of rucks.
Casey played with Jack Crowley (20) for Ireland. Crowley is a Munster fly-half who excelled for Ireland under-20s this year. He controlled games and did the spectacular, hinting at a rare skill set. Crowley already has the approval of Ronan O'Gara. Crowley's standout performances were matched by Leinster academy winger Andrew Smith (19). Smith has accumulated highlight play after highlight play for Leinster A and in underage teams. He won't be starting for Ireland anytime soon, but he's definitely one to watch in Leinster over the coming years.
The recent success of Leinster has been built on a pipeline of young talent coming into the province. That talent is providing a foundation for Andy Farrell's future. Munster, Connacht and Ulster are trying to compete with Leinster, not complement them. For Ireland, the influx of talent is there regardless of where it comes from. It just needs to be embraced.
Using this enforced break as a reset button makes a lot of sense for Irish rugby.
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