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Fantasy Premier League | 2019/20 winner with his advice and tips

Joshua Bull is not just a mathematician at the University of Oxford, but became the global Fantas...



Fantasy Premier League | 2019/...
Soccer

Fantasy Premier League | 2019/20 winner with his advice and tips

Joshua Bull is not just a mathematician at the University of Oxford, but became the global Fantasy Premier League champion for the 2019/20 season.

The Ipswich Town fan admits he isn't the world's biggest football nut, nor does he feel his maths background gave him much of an advantage. However, he certainly has some sage advice given he topped the millions who took part last season.

You can join the OTB AM Fantasy League right now (CODE: vnlgl2) - but first, here are some of the tips Joshua brought us when he spoke with Eoin and Shane on the show:

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Don't follow bandwagons

"Getting that diversity is really key. Trying to look at every opinion and asking 'Is this a bubble? Is this a bandwagon? Or is this actually something that if I asked a friend who is a really big fan of that club, would they recognise that as a sensible thing?'

"Just having that kind of critical eye, analysing the information coming in and being a bit critical of it, not just taking it at face value, is really key to that.

"In hindsight a lot of the people on these bandwagons say 'What were we thinking captaining a Brighton defender in that double gameweek?'"

Expensive is good

"There's a really important balance to hit there. We kind of know looking at the season ahead who the players are who are going to score the most points.

"We don't know who is going to edge it, but it's a pretty safe bet that people like Mo Salah or Kevin de Bruyne will be up there.

"Those are probably the first players that everyone starts to look at - who are the premium picks I can put in here?

"The problem is if you just try to load up the most expensive players, obviously you're left with cheap players that aren't going to get any minutes.

"For me there's a balance - I want one or two really expensive players that I know are going to do well, and I want to keep them in my team for the whole season.

"You need to find those differential picks at the cheaper price points, and for me it's much easier to find players around £7m or £8m that are going to score lots of points, than it is to try and find those in the £4m or £5m mark. I would say you're better off having fewer of the really big-name players, and having a much more balanced team."

Look at home advantage

"It was something I had half an eye on last season. I gave a public lecture for the University of Oxford, who I work for, on Tuesday night, on the mathematical analyses, and the really surprising one was how important that home form is.

"There is a definite bump there. You are better off picking a home player, and I think that applies even when there are no fans.

"There are all kinds of factors that go into why a player might be better off at home. They live there for a start and not having to drive halfway across the country.

"I don't think it's necessarily going to be a big problem that there's no fans in the stadium... I think the home and away difference will still be there."

Make the expensive players captain (generally)

"You're expecting those expensive players to do better, on average. There will always be players, like Danny Ings last season for example, where he was priced well below that limit, and obviously was having a great season.

"That doesn't make him a bad captain choice, but if I was torn between him and somebody like Mo Salah or Kevin de Bruyne, with an equally good fixture, I would probably go with that expensive player, just because I'm expecting them to get more points in the long run."

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