During the European Championship, John Duggan brings you a preview and tips for the top football games in association with Paddy Power...
Spain are a good team, but I was surprised to see Italy at odds against for their Euro semi-final at Wembley.
Italy to my mind should be a touch around even money, but they are greater odds than that.
It's almost as if their failure to qualify for a World Cup has planted doubts in people's minds about their ability to take on and beat the best football teams.
Well they did that against Belgium in the quarter-finals, a performance reflective of the dynamism and passion they have displayed in this tournament.
Spain haven't shown similar dynamism, failing to score with 85 percent possession against Sweden and finding themselves unable to execute against ten-man Switzerland for 40 minutes.
The first performance one can excuse after they had issues with Covid-19 in the camp, but the knife they used against the Swiss was blunt.
Spain did put 10 goals past Slovakia and Croatia and there is the possibility that they go up another gear and Morata and Moreno may catch fire, but the evidence would show that they have no mature stars.
Pedri and Ferran Torres could well become football icons, but perhaps Spain are too callow, too much in transition to Qatar.
Italy's identity is clear under Roberto Mancini; a spirit of a club team; a replacement Gianluigi in goalkeeper Donnarumma, veteran defenders in Chiellini and Bonucci, an excellent midfield of Verratti, Jorginho and Barella, and in players such as Insigne and Immobile, in form goal scorers.
The Azzurri are unbeaten in 32 for a reason.
Italy can win this in normal time.
Football recommendation: Italy to beat Spain in the European Championship semi-final in 90 minutes - 7/5
Good luck!
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