Welcome to Virtual Insanity, US Open edition, where we spend virtual money to try and win virtual money on golf betting. It's that simple!
Last week, one of our selections, Doc Redman, was tied for second at the Palmetto Championship, so we made a small profit on the week.
The virtual pot is at €913 from €1000 entering this week's tournament of focus, the US Open Championship at Torrey Pines in California.
The US Open was first played in 1895 and will be held this year at the Torrey Pines South Course in San Diego.
Redesigned by golf course architect Rees Jones, Torrey Pines South is one of the host courses for the Farmers Insurance Open, played on the PGA Tour at the beginning of each year.
Par is being reduced to 71 for this US Open, which was last held at this course in 2008, when Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a Monday play off.
Torrey Pines is a very difficult golf course, requiring straight driving, the ability to shape shots into small greens and a sure putting touch on the poa annua surfaces. The rough is thick. It's also by the California coast, so skill in the wind is also a necessary attribute. It's going to be a tough test and fascinating television.
The tournament starts at 3pm Irish time on Thursday.
Be sure to shop around, with bookmakers such as Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Boylesports offering 1/5 the odds for your pick to get into the top 10 places. William Hill are going to nine places each way and SKY Bet are going to 11! Other bookmakers are offering better prices, but less each way places. The terms with the respective bookmaker are indicated beside each pick.
I am investing a lot of my 'virtual' money because of the generous each way terms on offer for this major championship and a sense of innate confidence. Please bet less with real money if you decide to get involved.
Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry are the two Irish players in the 156 strong field.
Lowry is in the picks below. For McIlroy, he could win, because he has the natural talent to do so, but it's now seven years since he won a major and he hasn't set the world alight since his success at the Wells Fargo Championship. A fifth major for McIlroy is going to come and he does have nice form at Torrey Pines, but I just want to heartily cheer him when he does it because following him blindly until it happens is no longer a profitable exercise.
Our headline selection in the Outright Market is Tony Finau for €10 each way at 28/1. (1/5 the odds the first 9 places, William Hill).
The US Open can be a funny tournament; Gary Woodland won at Pebble Beach in 2019 and it was only his fourth Tour title. Lucas Glover had only won once before his 2009 success. Michael Campbell in 2005 and Steve Jones in 1996 had career defining weeks, but they were rank outsiders. So anything is possible. Andy North won three times on the PGA Tour; two of those wins were US Open championships in 1978 and 1985.
I am selecting Tony Finau as the headline tip because the likable American may just put it all together this week. He's seen as a bridesmaid, a serial contender on Tour, but not a winner. His only victory was at the Puerto Rico Open in 2016. On the other hand, he is ridiculously consistent. He has posted top fives in all four majors; including a tie for 8th at last year's US Open and a tie for 4th at last year's US PGA. Another top 10 was earned at last month's US PGA at Kiawah Island.
Finau is a tee to green machine who was unlucky not to win at Riviera earlier this year. His Achilles heel is putting, but he putts well on poa annua greens and has a solid record on the Torrey Pines South Course. He has been in the top six in four of the last five years at the Farmers Insurance Open, which is attractive form. Tony Finau might just surprise us all and keep scoring and scoring and scoring this week to build a lead. To win.
Our second selection is Jon Rahm for €9 each way at 9/1. (1/5 the odds the first 11 places, SKY Bet).
Spain's Jon Rahm is the best player in the world without a major and I'd be all over him this week if it wasn't for what happened at the Memorial Tournament. Walking off the 18th green after an incredible 64 that sent him six shots clear through 54 holes, Rahm was told he had to withdraw after testing positive for coronavirus. It was hugely unfortunate. Shane Lowry called it one of the best rounds he'd ever seen. Rahm is now out of quarantine, but this may be far from an ideal preparation for a major. It's hard to know if he will be able to put it out of his mind so soon. Rahm has the intelligence, work ethic and talent to win many majors - and he has to be part of the calculations for this tournament. I would say he's the best driver of a golf ball I have seen since Greg Norman and he loves Torrey Pines. His first PGA Tour win came there in 2017 and he finished second in 2020, one of four top sevens in five appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open. The harder conditions should actually play into his hands this week. Rahm is a skinny price, but a worthy favourite.
Our third selection is Patrick Cantlay for €8 each way at 25/1. (1/5 the odds the first 9 places, William Hill).
American Patrick Cantlay is one of the best golfers in the world and remains underrated. He tops the PGA Tour standings off the back of a season which has yielded two victories, the most recent in his last start at the Memorial Tournament. Yes, that was lucky given what happened to Jon Rahm, but Cantlay still had the guts to face down Collin Morikawa in a play off. Cantlay's form at Torrey Pines is nothing to write home about, but Tiger Woods aside, none of the 2008 contenders had much form in the regular Tour event either. Cantlay grew up in California and is a player built for the test of a US Open; hitting fairways and greens on repeat. He has few weaknesses and anyone who can shoot 62 at Pebble Beach is worth a look on a similar lay out.
Our fourth selection is Shane Lowry for €7 each way at 40/1. (1/5 the odds the first 9 places, William Hill).
Our own Shane Lowry is so down to earth that it's easy to forget he is a major champion, and a player who won the Open Championship by six shots. The US Open is the tournament where he first tasted major heartbreak, as a four shot lead evaporated on the Sunday at Oakmont in 2016, the door left open for Dustin Johnson to win. He was also in the top 10 at Chambers Bay the year before, but Lowry is now a proven champion. The Offaly native enters this US Open confident with his game after a tie for 4th at the US PGA and a tie for 6th on his last start at the Memorial Tournament. He has also professed his liking for Torrey Pines, where he was tied for seventh at the 2015 Farmers. He has twice closed the Farmers with rounds of 68 at the South Course. Lowry is hitting the ball well and that places him in a position to challenge for the title at a course that will be windy and will require a magic touch around the greens.
Our fifth selection is Matthew Fitzpatrick for €6 each way at 50/1. (1/5 the odds the first 10 places, Paddy Power, Betfair).
Matthew Fitzpatrick was the first English player to win the US Amateur since 1911 back in 2013 at Brookline's Country Club, a Rees Jones design. So that was an early sign of his pedigree. This is his first look at Torrey Pines, but with conditions different to February, I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing. Fitzpatrick also has experienced caddie Billy Foster on the bag. He quietly finished with a top 10 at the Palmetto Championship last week, his fifth top ten of the PGA Tour season. Still only 26, Fitzpatrick has yet to go close in a major, hampered by what at times can be indifferent approach play. However, he was tied 12th in the US Open at Pebble Beach in 2019, hits it straight and is a crack putter. He's also won the DP World Tour Championship twice. You never know.
Our final selection in the Outright Market is Charl Schwartzel for €5 each way at 200/1. (1/5 the odds the first 8 places, Bet 365).
One could tip a load of players in the 50/1 to 100/1 range, but I am taking a flier with Charl Schwartzel in the outright market, as experience and know how may trump youthful exuberance for what will be a long week. The Masters champion of 2011 has not necessarily fulfilled the promise of his Augusta breakthrough, but Zach Johnson had to wait eight years for a second major; Bernard Langer the same. South African Schwartzel has shown pockets of decent form in 2021; a second in the team event in New Orleans followed by a tie for third at the Byron Nelson in Texas a month ago. He closed with a 68 on the South Course to finish tied 18th at the Farmers earlier this year. Injury free and happy with his game, he might surprise a few, especially at odds of 40/1 to get into the top eight.
I am also tipping three players in the First Round Leader Market; Erik Van Rooyen for €2 each way at 110/1; Rafael Cabrera Bello for €1.50 each way at 150/1 and Patrick Rodgers for €1.50 each way at 150/1. Each way terms are 1/5 the odds for the first 8 places with Paddy Power. All of these players have shown me glimpses of decent form recently which could lead to a nice Thursday showing, but not a tournament win.
So that's €100 wagered virtually on this week's golf. Make sure you bet less at home! A euro each way is enough!
Please gamble responsibly, never bet more than you can afford, and good luck!
Download the brand new OffTheBall App in the Play Store & App Store right now! We've got you covered!
Subscribe to OffTheBall's YouTube channel for more videos, like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter for the latest sporting news and content.
